The AI boom is eating the world's memory supply, and your next phone or laptop will likely cost more because of it. Demand for RAM chips now exceeds supply by 10%, according to TrendForce, and manufacturers are paying 50% more this quarter than last for standard DRAM. Rush orders cost two to three times the normal rate.
The math is simple but unforgiving. AI data centers require enormous amounts of high-bandwidth memory to feed GPUs, and chipmakers have shifted production to serve that lucrative demand. That leaves fewer chips for everything else: phones, laptops, game consoles, TVs. Counterpoint Research projects smartphone prices will rise 6.9% in 2026, with shipments dropping 2.1%. Budget phones under $200 are getting hit hardest, with bill-of-materials costs up 20-30% since January.
Micron, one of three major memory producers, reported record earnings on December 17 and expects supply to remain short for the foreseeable future. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra called it "the most exciting time in Micron's history," though excitement for chipmakers means pain for consumers. The company is accelerating construction on its new Idaho fab, now expected to produce wafers by mid-2027, earlier than planned. Still, that's 18 months away, and building fabs takes years.
TrendForce analyst Avril Wu put it bluntly: buy your devices now if you want them. She's already bought an iPhone 17.
The Bottom Line: Memory prices won't fall in 2026, and new production capacity won't arrive until 2027 at earliest.
QUICK FACTS
- DRAM demand exceeds supply by 10% (TrendForce data)
- Prices up 50% quarter-over-quarter, with 40% more expected next quarter
- Smartphone prices projected to rise 6.9% in 2026 (Counterpoint Research)
- Micron's new Idaho fab won't produce chips until mid-2027
- Low-end phone manufacturing costs up 20-30% this year
